ACCOMPAGNEMENTS FORMATIFS POUR LES ÉQUIPES DU SECTEUR PUBLIC
Cost Per Notch Redux
What Every Girl Should Know
What Every Girl Should Know
Setting Boundaries With Your Partner
Managing Stress at the End of a Relationship
Valentine’s Day: A Date Which Will Live In Infamy
The Importance of Trust in a Family
Let Go of Your Past to Heat Up Your Present Relationship
The Hottest Kiss in the History of Earth
It’s a Fling Thing
Looking for Love This Summer?
714
Ciaran says:
August 15, 2014 at 11:03 pm
@ BuenaVisa 695,
That’s possibly the best statement of the risks to men in the SMV that I’ve seen. I agree with TedD that it should be a post of its own. With your permission, I would like to post it as such. Let me know.
A common decision science error is to use probability-weighted techniques when in fact we are dealing with a default model problem. Example: when you wish to price an object, you’ll often attempt to achieve a probability-weighted insight into its value. So, more or less, you pay a generally correct price. This is great, unless you are dealing with a problem that will WIPE YOU OUT if you’re wrong.
I do think one thing is missing from your model; you address risk but do not deal with the rewards. Perhaps the problem might wipe you out – but you could also win the jackpot. Your analysis is incomplete until you factor in all possible outcomes.
You described one of those outcomes in a very heartfelt comment a few weeks ago, where you described the joy and pride you felt when meeting your son at the top of a long climb on his cross country bicycle trip. You got wiped out by a vindictive ex, that’s true, and that must have been like walking through hell. But you also got that moment with your son, and I hope many others like it, in the past and future. All those things have to be placed in the balance.
What Every Girl Should Know
What Every Girl Should Know
Setting Boundaries With Your Partner
Managing Stress at the End of a Relationship
Valentine’s Day: A Date Which Will Live In Infamy
The Importance of Trust in a Family
Let Go of Your Past to Heat Up Your Present Relationship
The Hottest Kiss in the History of Earth
It’s a Fling Thing
Looking for Love This Summer?
714
Ciaran says:
August 15, 2014 at 11:03 pm
@ BuenaVisa 695,
That’s possibly the best statement of the risks to men in the SMV that I’ve seen. I agree with TedD that it should be a post of its own. With your permission, I would like to post it as such. Let me know.
A common decision science error is to use probability-weighted techniques when in fact we are dealing with a default model problem. Example: when you wish to price an object, you’ll often attempt to achieve a probability-weighted insight into its value. So, more or less, you pay a generally correct price. This is great, unless you are dealing with a problem that will WIPE YOU OUT if you’re wrong.
I do think one thing is missing from your model; you address risk but do not deal with the rewards. Perhaps the problem might wipe you out – but you could also win the jackpot. Your analysis is incomplete until you factor in all possible outcomes.
You described one of those outcomes in a very heartfelt comment a few weeks ago, where you described the joy and pride you felt when meeting your son at the top of a long climb on his cross country bicycle trip. You got wiped out by a vindictive ex, that’s true, and that must have been like walking through hell. But you also got that moment with your son, and I hope many others like it, in the past and future. All those things have to be placed in the balance.